Packers' Early Free Agency Thoughts

The Green Bay Packers have signed a free agent. Stop there. Re-read that first sentence. To many Packers fans, free agency was something that didn't require much attention in the past. Former GM Ted Thompson, who served in the role from 2005-2017, was quick to avoid free agent acquisitions for many years. Of course, Thompson had his 'splash' signings with Charles Woodson and Julius Peppers, both of which were major contributors, but he was always known for his cornerstone draft-and-develop philosophy.

New GM Brian Gutekunst, who served as Director of Player Personnel the past two seasons, has certainly made a name for himself in his first few months at the helm. In a January press conference, Gutekunst stated the Packers would use 'every available avenue' to bolster the roster. He certainly wasn't kidding. Before free agency even started, it was reported by multiple media outlets that the Packers had interest in defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson, as well as star tight end Jimmy Graham.
















After a lengthy visit with multiple coaches and player personnel on March 7, Wilkerson took his time deciding his fate. On March 13, the two parties agreed on a 1-year, $4.7 million deal, with $1.5 million guaranteed. Wilkerson also has the ability to earn another $2.75 million in incentives. The key part in the Wilkerson signing was his reunion with Mike Pettine, his former defensive coordinator at the New York Jets (and current Green Bay defensive coordinator). Pettine is thought to have had a large role in recruiting Wilkerson to the Packers.

Wilkerson’s first choice all along was to play for the #Packers. He took a one-year deal and will have a chance to prove he’s the player he was. #Packers should be getting a motivated player.

— Tom Silverstein (@TomSilverstein) March 14, 2018

So, why was Wilkerson released by the Jets in the first place? Reports surfaced during the 2017 season that he had been late to team meetings on multiple occasions, and was simply unmotivated to play the game of football. The Jets went as far as making him inactive for a couple games, and eventually released him this offseason. Wilkerson's poor attitude may be due in part to the Jets being a pretty crappy team in 2017, but some speculate that Wilkerson threw in the towel after being paid a hefty 5-year, $86 million deal with a whopping $53 million in guaranteed money during the 2016 offseason. Regardless of all this, Mo is certainly a talented player when he wants to be. With two double-digit sack seasons since being drafted in the 1st round in 2011, he could be a huge addition to a Packers defense in dire need of a consistent pass rush, especially at only ~$5 million.

    Wilkerson's upside: 10 sacks, 50 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 3 forced fumbles - Pro Bowl season
    Worst-case scenario: 3 sacks, 25-30 tackles, rotational depth player
    My grade on the signing: 9/10

On the same day, Jimmy Graham signed a 3-year, $30 million deal. The contract is somewhat incentive-based, as he only carries a $5.67 million cap hit for 2018 - which allows the Packers to cut ties after this season if they don't see what they like. Some people argue that Graham wasn't utilized correctly in Seattle's offense, and was responsible for too many blocking assignments, which isn't his strong-suit. Of course, Graham led all tight ends last season with 10 TDs, so could he really be that much better? At 6'7" 265 lbs, Graham will surely add a huge (pun-intended) redzone threat for Aaron Rodgers.

    Graham's upside: 12 TDs, 1000 yards, Pro Bowl season
    Worst-case scenario: 5 TDs, 400 yards, solid starter
    My grade on the signing: 8/10
   
So how did they have the cap space for these deals, you may ask?

Non-coincidentally, the Packers cut wide receiver Jordy Nelson just hours after the Jimmy Graham signing was announced. Nelson, who has been with the Packers since being drafted in 2008, was a mainstay in the offense ever since QB Aaron Rodgers took over. The two had seemingly been best friends ever since. Rodgers even took to social media later that day, proclaiming his praise for the former Packers star wideout.

Hard to find the right words today to express what 87 means to me. No teammate exemplified what it means to be a packer quite like him. From living in GB full time, his incredible contributions to the city, state, and region, to his consistent, reliable play on the field. Definitely a sad day and the toughest part of this business. There will never be another quite like white lightning. #leader #brother #friend #baller #loyal #champion #legacy #intact #stillcanplayball #backshoulder #1stSBTD

A post shared by Aaron Rodgers (@aaronrodgers12) on Mar 13, 2018 at 6:13pm PDT

Just days later, Nelson would sign a 2-year, $15 million ($13 million guaranteed) deal with the Oakland Raiders, and needless to say, it will be very strange not seeing #87 on the field in green and gold in 2018. His production will surely be missed, but the signing of Jimmy Graham functions essentially as a place-holder for at least this coming season. If there's any consolation in all this, the release of Jordy essentially paid for Wilkerson and Graham's contracts; their two contracts combined were almost equal to Jordy's contract after he was released.

The combination of Graham and Wilkerson costs the #Packers $10.41 million in cap dollars, almost exactly the same as the $10.25M they got from cutting Jordy Nelson.

— Tom Silverstein (@TomSilverstein) March 19, 2018

Finally, just hours ago, former Packers safety Morgan Burnett agreed to a 3-year, $14.5 million deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The #Steelers and former #Packers S Morgan Burnett, agreed to terms on 3-year deal worth close to $14.5M, source says. Finally a top safety off the board.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 20, 2018

Burnett had been a nice contributor for several years, and even called the plays on defense the past few seasons. The move almost assures that 2017 second-round pick Josh Jones will move to starting strong safety for the upcoming season.

Finally, if you watched any Packers games last year, you saw a key part on defense that was missing: cornerback. After a week of free agency, the Packers have yet to sign a free agent cornerback - and even traded one of their most consistent starters, Damarious Randall, to the Cleveland Browns. Gutekunst did put in an offer sheet for CB Kyle Fuller, but the Bears matched the offer just two hours later. The pickings are getting slim, but some decent corners still on the market include Tramon Williams (former Packer), EJ Gaines, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Ross Cockrell, Davon House (former Packer), Byron Maxwell, and Delvin Breaux. However, only time will tell where the Packers will go. Your move, Gutekunst.